Observation-Aware Wildfire Escalation
Sharp thermal-growth bounds and arrival-time-valid evidence
Distinguish a change in fire activity from a change in what the sensors could observe. The paper develops graph-constrained activity contrasts and arrival-time-valid evidence, then tests them under stated synthetic models.
- Identifier
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-01
- Series
- Wildfire Intelligence
- Edition
- Version 0.2
- Length
- 19 pages
- Reserved DOI
- 10.5281/zenodo.22726215 (record reserved)
What is this paper trying to establish?
Did wildfire activity increase, or did the observing system simply become more capable of seeing it?
The central idea.
Distinguish a change in fire activity from a change in what the sensors could observe. The paper develops graph-constrained activity contrasts and arrival-time-valid evidence, then tests them under stated synthetic models.
Conditional mathematical theory and synthetic evidence; no real-fire forecast has been validated. Research only; not an official emergency warning.
This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.
What changes if the method holds?
A model that confuses sensor opportunity with fire growth can issue false escalation signals. This work makes observability part of the evidence rather than an afterthought.
Where scrutiny should concentrate.
The paper identifies the following points as the highest-value targets for independent review.
- 01Relative exposure calibration and componentwise identifiability.
- 02Conditional paired-count assumptions and repeated-evidence handling.
- 03Observation time versus first availability and later revisions.
An open, inspectable research artifact.
The public record links the manuscript to its release, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier. Status travels with the paper; a reserved DOI is not presented as a published Zenodo record.
- Document
- Research Paper
- Review status
- Open for independent review
- Published
- 2026-09-12
- DOI status
- Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22726215
- Canonical record
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-01