Observation-Aware Wildfire Regime Forecasting
Coherent multi-horizon risk, unresolved outcomes, and incident-balanced selective validation
Develop coherent risk statements across several forecast horizons while retaining uncertainty about the latent state and unresolved outcomes. The evidence remains conditional and synthetic, not a calibrated operational wildfire forecast.
- Identifier
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-02
- Series
- Wildfire Intelligence
- Edition
- Version 0.2
- Length
- 25 pages
- Reserved DOI
- 10.5281/zenodo.22726324 (record reserved)
What is this paper trying to establish?
How can a wildfire model issue coherent risk estimates across several horizons when outcomes remain unresolved?
The central idea.
Develop coherent risk statements across several forecast horizons while retaining uncertainty about the latent state and unresolved outcomes. The evidence remains conditional and synthetic, not a calibrated operational wildfire forecast.
Conditional forecasting and selective-evaluation methods with synthetic evidence. No operational forecast or calibrated real-fire probabilities are established. Research only; not an official emergency warning.
This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.
What changes if the method holds?
Operational-looking probabilities are dangerous when horizons conflict or labels are incomplete. The framework forces one persistent path model and evaluation that does not silently discard unresolved incidents.
Where scrutiny should concentrate.
The paper identifies the following points as the highest-value targets for independent review.
- 01One persistent model over the full forecast path.
- 02Unresolved outcome labels and incident-balanced evaluation.
- 03Selective evaluation and model misspecification boundaries.
An open, inspectable research artifact.
The public record links the manuscript to its release, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier. Status travels with the paper; a reserved DOI is not presented as a published Zenodo record.
- Document
- Research Paper
- Review status
- Open for independent review
- Published
- 2026-09-12
- DOI status
- Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22726324
- Canonical record
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-02