Observation-Aligned Validation of Coral Bleaching Models
Sharp comparison bounds, source compatibility, and an executable chronology benchmark
Compare bleaching models using the same admitted observation alignment. The method supplies sharp finite comparison bounds, compatibility rules and reproducible synthetic benchmarks without claiming a fitted biological validation.
- Identifier
- MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-02
- Series
- Reef & Climate
- Edition
- Version 0.2
- Length
- 15 pages
- Reserved DOI
- 10.5281/zenodo.22728253 (record reserved)
What is this paper trying to establish?
How can bleaching models be compared fairly when observations differ in timing, source, and support?
The central idea.
Compare bleaching models using the same admitted observation alignment. The method supplies sharp finite comparison bounds, compatibility rules and reproducible synthetic benchmarks without claiming a fitted biological validation.
Validation methods, exact constructed comparisons, and computational benchmarks. Independent bleaching observations have not been acquired or fitted in this edition.
This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.
What changes if the method holds?
A model should not win by choosing a more favorable alignment than its competitor. Shared admissible observations make the comparison itself auditable.
Where scrutiny should concentrate.
The paper identifies the following points as the highest-value targets for independent review.
- 01Shared alignment versus independently selected worst cases.
- 02Observation endpoint and source-version compatibility.
- 03Dependence grouping and finite-support assumptions.
An open, inspectable research artifact.
The public record links the manuscript to its release, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier. Status travels with the paper; a reserved DOI is not presented as a published Zenodo record.
- Document
- Research Paper
- Review status
- Open for independent review
- Published
- 2026-09-12
- DOI status
- Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22728253
- Canonical record
- MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-02