PRISM Metriq
Laboratory
Reef & Climate · Research Paper

Thermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching

Order-sensitive heat memory, chronology bounds, and an auditable path to ReefWatch

Research reportMF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01 / v0.2

Study how the order of heat exposure affects a precisely specified scalar memory model. The paper gives exact affine summaries and chronology bounds, with synthetic histories and a NOAA environmental-arithmetic audit.

Read the paper Release & files
Cover of Thermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching
Current public editionv0.2 · 2026-09-12
Identifier
MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01
Series
Reef & Climate
Edition
Version 0.2
Length
20 pages
Reserved DOI
10.5281/zenodo.22728224 (record reserved)
01
The question

What is this paper trying to establish?

Does the order of heat exposure matter even when aggregate thermal stress is the same?

02
The contribution

The central idea.

Study how the order of heat exposure affects a precisely specified scalar memory model. The paper gives exact affine summaries and chronology bounds, with synthetic histories and a NOAA environmental-arithmetic audit.

Current status

Mathematical derivations, synthetic experiments, and a historical NOAA arithmetic audit. Model parameters remain illustrative and unfitted; no predictive skill for observed bleaching is established.

This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.

03
Why it matters

What changes if the method holds?

Two reefs can accumulate the same headline heat metric through very different histories. An order-sensitive memory model may preserve biologically relevant chronology that aggregate totals erase.

04
Independent review

Where scrutiny should concentrate.

The paper identifies the following points as the highest-value targets for independent review.

  1. 01
    Model assumptions and positive contraction in chronology sorting.
  2. 02
    DHW units, complete lookback support and environmental provenance.
  3. 03
    No fitted bleaching probability or biological superiority claim.
Publication record

An open, inspectable research artifact.

The public record links the manuscript to its release, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier. Status travels with the paper; a reserved DOI is not presented as a published Zenodo record.

GitHub release Source folder
Document
Research Paper
Review status
Open for independent review
Published
2026-09-12
DOI status
Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22728224
Canonical record
MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01
Metriq PRISM Laboratory, Thermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching, Metriq PRISM Laboratory Research Paper MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01, Version 0.2, 2026. Corresponding contributor: Daniel H. Jeffery, ORCID 0009-0001-1200-6042. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22728224.